The People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is ...

Why China is Pumping China Stocks

Why China is Pumping China Stocks
TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD).
Inb4 pos or ban
The Economics
China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out.

https://preview.redd.it/g0nwsssoe7f51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e46b6b2cfa12b351b30ff2c5567c2f9992e99b2

The Current Problem
The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars.
You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out).
China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later.

https://preview.redd.it/maul8aope7f51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dd4665517ec7303b51aa1416517c9e0ea50bef

The Solution
China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed.
How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over.
This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible.
China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products.
China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems.
Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
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Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

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submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Yen places its opponent in check. Analysis as of 04.11.2020

Yen places its opponent in check. Analysis as of 04.11.2020

Monthly fundamental forecast for yen

While the greenback is waiting for the election's final results, trading currency cross rates may be worth considering. The US political landscape will undoubtedly affect most currencies, but the pandemic remains a weightier factor in Forex pricing in the medium and long terms. The strategies based on the divergence in epidemiological situations, economic growth, and monetary policies continue to yield profits. Another confirmation is the realization of the targets at 122.9 and 121.8 set in mid-October for shorts in the EURJPY.
COVID-19 hit Japan less than the eurozone: in terms of Coronavirus cases per 100,000, Japan is one of the countries that tackle the pandemic most efficiently, along with China, Taiwan, and South Korea. The situation in Belgium, Spain, and Italy looks gloomy, on the contrary.

Recession and pandemic


Source: Financial Times.
As a result, Europe is forced to introduce new restrictions, which will cut the eurozone's Q4 GDP by 2.3%, according to Financial Times. Thus, a double recession is certainly in the air. The organization of economic development and cooperation expects that the currency block's economy will reduce 7.9% in 2020, i.e., twice as much as during the previous global crisis. I dare suppose that the second wave may even downgrade those forecasts.
The BoJ expects that the Japanese GDP will fall by 5.5% by the end of the 2020/2021 fiscal year in March. Japan's economic loss doesn't look as significant as the eurozone's since the efficiency of anti-pandemic measures in Asia is higher than in Europe.

GDP dynamics

Source: Financial Times.
Christine Lagarde is sure the ECB will expand a monetary stimulus package in December as the coronavirus is spreading fast across Europe. Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues are ready to take action if necessary, but the BoJ's Head has not seen such a necessity so far. Both regulators got caught in a liquidity trap where softer monetary policies do not have any positive effect. Both agree to play currency wars, but the ECB's intentions are manifest, and the euro is therefore falling faster than other G10 currencies.

Monthly trading plan for EURJPY

The situation may seriously change soon: vaccines' development will support the global economic recovery and international trade, which is positive news for the euro. The European countries will lift restrictions, and Christine Lagarde's hints about QE expansion will remain mere hints. According to Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, there is no point in increasing buy volumes as the inflation won't speed up anyway. Instead, a change in the QE program's structure must be in focus.
This scenario looks too optimistic, though. But why not hope for the best and use the EURJPY's drawdown to 120.65 for long-term buying?
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/yen-places-its-opponent-in-check-analysis-as-of-04112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar's farewell performance. Review as of 30.10.2020

Dollar's farewell performance. Review as of 30.10.2020
What is good for the greenback is good for Trump. Does the current White House tenant have a chance to keep his chair?

Can the USD index's rise right before the election be a tribute to retiring Trump?

Those Americans are so strange: less than a week is left, and they still don't know who will be the president! Financial markets appear not to understand that either. The S&P 500's fall on the eve of the election indicates that the party in power's candidate will lose. The ratings indicate the same, but the US dollar is growing by leaps and bounds, while investors know: what is good for the greenback is good for Donald Trump. Can the Republican still have a chance? Or is it the USD's farewell performance for Trump?

https://preview.redd.it/05ez9n4828w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eab79fbf5beec7a869becfef8bb8197116dc1b96
Even if we forget about the pandemic and trade wars, we'll see that a weak dollar has run all through Trump's presidency. The US' 45th president did his best to weaken the greenback, accusing China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, asking the Fed to cut rates and revive QE, and calling Jerome Powell the USA's main enemy.
In the end, things didn't go the way Trump wanted. The USD index was consolidating stably from the beginning of 2018 and up to May 2020. The strong economy helped the Fed raise rates several times, which other central banks couldn't afford. Tax cuts and deregulation became a boon for US companies and the whole stock market. That drove capital to the USA and strengthened the dollar. The trading war slowed global trading down, cut the euro's rate, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The greenback won all the same.

https://preview.redd.it/0p75min828w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c833d6501df48d672fecb6b4f1340304394b0ff3
The US' 45th president will enter history books as a man who spoiled everything and as a man who first speaks and then thinks. His attempts to describe things better than they are make everybody smile and make him lose his authority. Trust is like paper: once creased, it's hard to smooth it out. Trump called the US' Q3 GDP growth "best in history" and said the year 2021 would be fantastic. However, Sleepy Biden's tax hike may "kill it all"! In fact, the US economy is now 3.5% worse than at the beginning of 2019. To get back to the previous figures, it needs to expand 15% in Q4, which is practically impossible. The current president is to be blamed for that too, as anti-pandemic measures weren't taken in good time. People say a clever man admits his faults, a cunning man blames others, and a stupid man is proud of them. Sounds true.
The key-note of Donald Trump's presidency was looking for a scapegoat. It was either China or Jerome Powell. The president's opponents would keep silent, understanding what consequences return criticism may have. Joe Biden won't keep silent. He says recovery is slowing down or even standing still, while the current high GDP value doesn't help millions of ordinary Americans who have lost their jobs.

https://preview.redd.it/os6pk6vm28w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b04eff9aac40e66083524f9bf71674d8d98c0a03
What frightens me the most is that the new US president is neither Trump nor Biden...but Alzheimer!
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/chatty-forex/dollars-farewell-performance-review-as-of-30102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

If only euro could. Forecast for EURUSD for 20.10.2020

If only euro could. Forecast for EURUSD for 20.10.2020
Despite the second wave of COVID-19 and the rumors of the ECB’s monetary stimulus expansion, the single European currency isn’t giving up. Let’s talk about what is supporting the euro, and make a trading plan for EURUSD.

Weekly fundamental forecast for euro

In spite of, not thanks to.
EURUSD’s yesterday rise could seem strange amid the US stock indexes’ fall and the second pandemic wave in Europe. However, we need simply to understand, what investment idea is prevailing in the market these days. The euro’s descending move is seen as a mere correction. Most investors are sure that Joe Biden’s victory at the elections on 3 November will weaken the dollar, whereas the vaccine will give a boost to the whole global economy. In those circumstances, any hint at the pair’s growth appears to a be a reason for buying it. No one wants to miss the train that will go to the north sooner or later.
Formally, the reasons of EURUSD’s rally were Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s statement that a fiscal stimulus deal is still likely to be made before the election, and the Fed’s dovish comments.
If the Democrats and the Republicans agree on economic help, S&P 500’s rally may continue, the global risk appetite will improve, and the greenback’s position will worsen. Still, the market didn’t believe Pelosi: a deal would raise Trump’s rating. What do the Democrats need that for? Also, Pelosi’s statement sounded too ultimatum-like: if not on Tuesday, then never!
Fed’s Vice Chair Richard Clarida asserts that GDP’s pullback is connected in part with the Central bank’s and the Congress’ relief packages. He thinks that both the lawmakers and the Fed will need to provide additional support for GDP to continue recovering. Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic believes that some areas of the US economy hardly ever recovered, or didn’t recover at all.
If the Fed is planning to provide an extra stimulus and GDP isn’t recovering, how can we speak about any divergence between monetary policy and economic growth, selling EURUSD in the short term?
During the fortnight ended on 13 October, hedge funds cut euro longs at the fastest pace over the last 8 months.

EURUSD and speculative positions in euro


https://preview.redd.it/sm3q5n39d8u51.jpg?width=562&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2014d5aa38de78e681c38b6099aa11e83177c0d5
Source: Bloomberg.
Still, speculative positions aren’t likely to become net shorts: the negative US assets yield and Joe Biden’s probable victory don’t allow investors to buy out dollars.
The Chinese yuan’s consolation may suggest the reasons of EURUSD’s rise to the top of figure 17. In spite of the People’s bank’s intention to put a spoke into USDCNH bears’ plans, the pair returned to the area of its 18-month lows and is ready to update them. That will draw it to the lowest value since July 2018. Investors overestimated the negative impact of China’s GDP’s moderate growth in Q3, and paid attention to strong statistics on industrial production and retail sales.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

I mentioned the yuan’s impact on the euro rate many times. Nevertheless, the eurozone’s domestic problems will prevent EURUSD from continuing the rally. The market is concerned about October’s data on European PMI. Most likely, the traders will be selling the euro at $1.178, $1.181 and $1.185 in the nearest time.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/if-only-euro-could-forecast-for-eurusd-for-20102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

[Expansion] Fixing the Khaleeji

February 2030
The rollout of the GCC currency union has been planned for almost three decades, dating back to 2001 when the Supreme Council of the GCC set the goal of creating a common currency by 2010. It has been a saga of seemingly infinite delays, with deadlines coming and going, pushed back due to debates over what shape the union should take and how its governance should function.
Most recently, Saudi Arabia pushed the idea of reviving the single currency in 2020, but this initiative died when the country broke into civil war in 2023. It lingered in limbo until 2026 when the UAE convinced the GCC to move ahead with the implementation of the single currency, to be called the Khaleeji, by 2027.
When the Arab Oil Embargo against China started in 2027, everyone with half a brain thought that this would lead to another delay of the Khaleeji project. Surely the people in charge of implementing the new currency would not be stupid enough to try to roll out the new currency in the middle of a geopolitical economic crisis?
This did not turn out to be the case. For some reason (we’ll chalk it up to incompetency, but who the hell really knows?), the Gulf States decided to push ahead with the implementation of the Khaleeji later that year.
It went about as well as expected--which is to say, not at all. The Arab Gulf States immediately found themselves eating through foreign currency reserves trying to prop up the 1.00:3.00 Khaleeji:USD exchange rate (which was selected since it is around the current pegged exchange rate between several Gulf currencies and the USD-- the Bahraini Dinar trades at 1.00:2.65, the Kuwaiti Dinar trades at 1.00:3.27, and the Omani Rial trades at 1.00:2.60). Though the oil embargo was lifted at the end of 2028, confidence in the new currency is somewhat shaky, making the 1:3 exchange rate difficult to maintain. Still, not everything is bad for the new currency: with Bahrain mostly stabilized and set to join the currency union later this year, and Saudi Arabia on its way there, the Khaleeji should soon have two new adherents, boosting the power of the currency.
In order to ease some of these concerns and reverse FOREX outflows, the Central Bank in Dubai has elected to devalue the Khaleeji by about 6 percent, dropping its exchange rate to 1.00:2.80. This is expected to improve the health of the currency, which should translate into better economic performance. It’ll also have the unintended consequence of making exports from within the currency union relatively cheaper on the international market, boosting exports a little (except for oil and natural gas exports, which are traded in USD). Between these two policies, the Khaleeji should be stabilized, barring any sort of unfortunate shake ups in the global markets in the near future.
The Benefits of the Khaleeji
Perhaps the most immediately apparent benefit of the Khaleeji for the Arab Gulf States is how it has made trade between the GCC member states significantly easier. Previously, firms doing business in multiple member states had to account for the different currencies of each. Even though all of the currencies were pegged to the USD, this still posed a significant administrative burden which has now been wiped away, reducing the cost of doing business in the GCC and making it a more attractive market for international investment.
An unexpected, but nevertheless significant, benefit of the Khaleeji has been the expansion of tourism in the GCC. Now that there is no need to exchange currencies, tourists have found it increasingly viable to land in one member state, travel to another (using the vastly improved infrastructure between the states, including the Gulf Railway high speed passenger rail), and then leave from that state, spreading out their spending and increasing the attractiveness of the GCC as a whole as a tourist destination.
Qatar has emerged as a big winner of this. Previously, Qatar and the UAE were locked in a sort of arms race competing for tourism revenues--a war that Dubai, as the most popular tourist destination in the world, was clearly winning. With the implementation of the Khaleeji making it easier than ever to move from one country in the GCC to the other, Doha can now cast itself as an addition to Dubai rather than a direct competitor. Tourism agencies in Doha are already looking to recast the city as the “middle stop” of a larger tour route between Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Manama, looking to attract tourists already heading to Dubai to Doha for at least part of their trip. Qatar is also emerging as a popular destination for foreign direct investment looking to capture part of the rapidly growing GCC market, since Qatar has been one of the more stable GCC member states over the past decade.
Currency Details
Denomination Form Front Face Rear Face
1 Baiza Coin A Camel Mangroves
5 Baiza Coin An Ibex Sand Dunes
10 Baiza Coin Date Palm "The Edge of the World" cliff
25 Baiza Coin A Crane Al Rajajil Standing Stones
50 Baiza Coin A Cheetah An Oasis
1 Khaleeji Coin A Lion The Jordan River
2 Khaleeji Coin An eagle Kaaba
1 Khaleeji Bill Burj Khalifa Dubai Fountains
5 Khaleeji Bill The Pearl Monument
10 Khaleeji Bill Bahrain World Trade Center Tree of Life
20 Khaleeji Bill Petra The Dead Sea
50 Khaleeji Bill Liberation Tower The Red Fort
100 Khaleeji Bill Dubai City Tower Federal Palace, Abu Dhabi
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Second wave hits euro. Analysis as of 19.10.2020

Second wave hits euro. Analysis as of 19.10.2020
However efficient the anti-Covid summer measures may be, the pandemic is returning to Europe, making the currency bloc’s countries impose new restrictions and compromising Q4 GDP growth. How will that affect the EURUSD? Let’s find it out and make a trading plan.

Weekly fundamental forecast for euro

Which is worse: to be always on a losing streak or to have glimpses of hope between losing streaks? EURUSD may help answer that question. The second wave of COVID-19 is spreading across Europe so fast that the eurozone’s double recession is being discussed in the market. Not only will that increase the risk of the EURUSD’s further correction, but it also suggests an eventual turn to downtrend. What’s more, neither China nor Brexit haven’t lived up to the euro fans’ expectations so far.
China’s GDP grew by 4.9% in quarter 3. That’s better than the Q2 value (+3.2%) and worse than the Bloomberg experts’ consensus forecast of 5.3%. Export-oriented China is in trouble as foreign demand is weak. It can’t assume responsibility for the global economy’s fate. Next, the risk of double recession is growing due to another round of restrictions in Germany, France, Spain, Italy amid the severe worsening of the epidemiological situation. That’s the main factor in EURUSD’s collapse.

China’s GDP dynamics


https://preview.redd.it/docyt2qop1u51.png?width=2778&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f5005608e89ff4d439609b0a020a7544cd9a5ef
Source: Bloomberg.

EURUSD rate and EU/US COVID cases


https://preview.redd.it/wmnp6obpp1u51.jpg?width=598&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b783d0349491d93c5907b5491b3cd61a4cf2d701
Source: Nordea Markets.
According to Societe Generale, any central bank that can soften monetary policy will do that, especially in the regions with high infection rates and restrictions on movement. Christine Lagarde says the second wave compromises the most the service sector, which accounts for 75% of the eurozone’s GDP. While Europe is facing the risk of QE expansion, the US forward markets presume that Joe Biden’s victory, fiscal stimulus extension, and inflation acceleration will make the Fed raise borrowing costs before 2024.
Thus, the divergence in economic growth and monetary policies starts showing favor to the USD, and that’s not the euro’s only problem. The market still believes that the Brexit issue will be solved at the last moment, just like it happened many times before. However, the clock is ticking, and they still can’t get the things rolling. They say more often that the pound can collapse 10% and draw the euro to the bottom in an unfavorable scenario.
Hopes for a bright future did good for the eurozone’s currency in summer, but they may eventually turn out to be harmful. Germany and the currency bloc plan to cut the budget deficit from 6.25% to 4.25% and from 8.9% to 6% of GDP in 2021. I hope the inopportune phaseout of monetary stimulus won’t stir up a debt crisis in Europe like in 2010-2012.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

Thus, EURUSD bulls have plenty of arguments to close long positions. A breakout of support at 1.169 may drop quotes to 1.162 and 1.159. Use a successful bearish storm for opening and building up short positions.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/second-wave-hits-euro-analysis-as-of-19102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

[Econ] uwaaah!~~ senpai, i can't handle the japanese yen. it's too big for me >.<

While Japanese tourists and investors are currently rejoicing at the appreciation of the JPY against most currencies, company executives and METI ministers are readying their tanto and are currently searching for an assistant to decapitate them. Too bad everyone else is getting ready for seppuku too.
I jest, but METI and company executives are (to put it lightly), fucking terrified about the JPY’s newfound mastery in these current times. Although firms, tourists, and investors find it easier than ever to do business overseas, exporters are seething from the recent appreciation of the Yen. In addition, the pegging of SE Asian currencies to the Yen and China’s suspected increase in JPY reserves (although yet to be confirmed) have cemented the JPY as an possible replacement for the USD, something that is very bad for Japan’s export economy.
To combat this, the BOJ has to change course from its conservative, restrictionary monetary policy (enacted to prevent a bubble economy) to a liberal monetary policy. One may ask, doesn’t this increase the probability of a bubble economy forming? Well, the BOJ has calculated that its conservative monetary policies have averted a bubble from forming. As we saw in 2029 and 2030, GDP growth was lower than predicted back in 2025, indicating that investors weren’t as bullish as before. In addition, strict financial regulations ensured that the predatory and dangerous loans of the 80s and early 90s didn’t make a comeback. Asset prices and land values, despite a nominal increase, did not soar to unreasonable heights.
So what is the BOJ doing now?
Inflation
Japanese inflation has been very low the past three decades, using hovering around the 0.5-1% mark. Although inflation has seen a small increase during the 2020s Asian Economic Boom, it is still around 1%. In response to this, the BOJ has set an inflation goal of 2.5% for 2031 and 2032.
The BOJ intends to reach this goal through three methods.
1) Interest and discount rates are to be tempered to 1.50% and 1.75% respectively. This should encourage lending between banks and companies, leading to more liquidity and more spending.
2) Buying back BOJ-issued bonds, focusing on foreign investors first. This will increase the money supply while simultaneously paying back more debt.
3) Quantitative easing increases the money supply and should increase inflation and devaluation of the JPY.
These actions, in addition, to increasing inflation (and in turn stimulating domestic consumption), should help to devalue the JPY. Other measures to devalue the JPY are as follows.
Depreciation of the JPY
As an export-based economy, any appreciation of the JPY is very, very bad for Japan, as one saw during the 1990s. The JPY recently broke the $95 USD mark, with no sign of the appreciation stopping. The BOJ has stated that it intends to block this appreciation of the JPY will all its might, and is targeting a return to the $100 mark. It intends to do by the following methods.
1) Increasing FOREX reserves: Right now the BOJ holds around $2.2 trillion in FOREX, mainly in USD and EUR. Following rumors that China has significantly increased its FOREX reserves (analysts estimate between $500 and $800 billion in new reserves), the BOJ has announced its intentions to follow suit. It has announced an increase in FOREX reserves of $450 billion in USD, EUR, and CNY. ($200 billion in USD, $150 billion in EUR, $100 billion in CNY) This should help depreciate the JPY relative to these currencies and help exporters.
2) Japanese companies who have overseas plants like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are being encouraged to reinvest USD garnered overseas into Japan. In addition to stimulating the domestic economy, this should also increase FOREX supply in Japan.
Miscellaneous
1) Domestic consumption tax rate is decreased form 8% to 6.8%.
2) Seeking to exploit the capital and investor flight from the US, a new campaign to attract foreign investment and foreign executives to settle in Japan will be launched. Titled “Land of the Rising Profits”, it will showcase the benefits of setting up shop in Japan as an investor.
submitted by JGaming805_YT to Geosim [link] [comments]

China moves to curb yuan strength, making it cheaper to bet against the currency

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 67%. (I'm a bot)
Over the weekend, the People's Bank of China cut the forex risk reserve ratio for forward contracts - from 20% to zero, according to a central bank statement.
Banks used to hold 20% of sales for some currency forward contracts, which essentially lock in the exchange rate for the sale of a currency on a future date.
The central bank move appeared to be aimed at stabilizing the Chinese currency, also referred to as the renminbi.
Last Friday, the currency rallied around 1.4%. "In the next step, the will continue to maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and stabilize market expectations, so as to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level," said the statement on the PBOC website.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates and indicated they will stay near zero for years, China's central bank has reversed the bulk of the decline in short-term rates - meaning that Chinese treasury yields are set to be above that of other major markets.
That could draw investors to Chinese government bonds, leading to an inflow into the yuan - hence boding well for the exchange rate.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: bank#1 rate#2 yuan#3 currency#4 Chinese#5
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Euro is rolling down. Forecast as of 16.10.2020

Euro is rolling down. Forecast as of 16.10.2020
The EURUSDis being corrected down amid several negative factors. They are growing political risks in the USA, the second pandemic wave in Europe, and the high risk of a no-deal Brexit. Let us discuss how bad the situation is and male up a EURUSD trading plan.

Weekly euro fundamental forecast

The EURUSD is down to its two-week low for several reasons. The US stock indexes have been trading down for three consecutive days; additional restrictions are introduced in Paris and London because of COVID-19. Besides, the EU officials announce that agreeing a "fair" new partnership with Britain was "worth every effort" but that the bloc would not compromise at any cost, which sends the pound down. The euro bulls are trying to consolidate the price at the bottom of figure 17, betting on China’s rebound and the ECB’s unwillingness to boost the monetary stimulus before December.
China has attracted $6 billion in the dollar-backed obligations, which repeats the record of 2019. According to the median forecast of the financial analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal, China’s GDP will grow by 5.3% Y-o-Y in the third-quarter report, which is much higher than in the April-June period (+3.2%) and close to the data recorded in 2019 (6.1%). The foreign demand for Chinese securities and the optimism about economic rebound allowed the yuan to compensate for most losses resulted from PBoC’s FX interventions. These facts support the euro.
The euro bulls are also encouraged by the ECB’s unwillingness to expand the monetary stimulus at its October meeting. Despite a sharp downturn of the euro-area economy amid the second pandemic waves, the ECB officials believe there is no need yet to ease the monetary policy. According to the head of the Bank of Holland, Klaas Knot, the regulator needs additional information. The ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos believes that since less than half of the money in the QE framework has been spent, there is no need to boost asset purchases.

ECB monetary stimulus spending


https://preview.redd.it/esnb9ht5dgt51.jpg?width=583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd293647240a19596f885ecf8728551baa93c363
Source: Bloomberg
The euro is supported by the fact that China’s economy is growing, and the ECB is unlikely to take active measures. However, the dollar demand increases amid the political uncertainty in the US associated with a lower global risk appetite, which sets the EURUSD bulls back.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 898 thousand in the week ended October 10th, proving the US labor market needs an additional fiscal stimulus. A poor reading has sent the S&P 500 down and strengthened the greenback. Investors still bet on the Democrats’ victory on November 3. However, they are not willing to buy US stocks now, as they remember how Hillary Clinton, who was leading in the ratings, eventually lost to Donald Trump. If the US stock indices continue falling, the market situation will be similar to that of 2017. At that time, the ECB, discontent with the euro strengthening, used verbal interventions, and the pair failed to consolidate above 1.2.

Dynamics of EURUSD in 2017 and 2020


https://preview.redd.it/ck7knoc6dgt51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=e04a6232ebb77be11ea89114fb412fd900e69381
Source: Nordea Markets

Weekly EURUSD trading plan

Remarkably, the EURUSD trend depends on the pound now. The UK is discontent with the EU's willingness to prepare for a no-deal Brexit can drop the GBPUSD deeper and send the euro towards $1.159-$1.162. I suggest one continue holding down the EURUSD shorts entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/euro-is-rolling-down-forecast-as-of-16102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

[Econ] Making the Best of a Very Bad Thing

November 2030
Well, uh, this sucks. Just a few short months after the Arab States of the Gulf finally unified, the world economy decided to explode. This is what we in the business of economics call a very bad thing.
The effects across the FAS have been relatively disparate. The United Arab Emirates, easily the most diversified economy in the region, has been the least heavily impacted (though it's still bad). Diversification programs in Oman and Bahrain have also helped to stave off some of the worst impacts of the crisis, though they haven't been as successful in avoiding the effects as the UAE. Qatar and Kuwait, still almost entirely reliant on hydrocarbon exports, are not happy with this turn of events. Falling global oil prices, though propped up a little by a sudden increase in demand from China, have left their economies struggling much more than the rest of the country, and in desperate need of assistance from the better off parts of the country.
One major pain point in this crisis has been the FAS's economic ties to the United States. While most of the FAS's trade is with Asia, Africa, and Europe, the US financial system still plays a crucial role in the FAS. The stability of the US Dollar has long been used to protect the economies of the Gulf using their vast Forex reserves (earned from oil sales) to peg their currency to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar in complete collapse, the value of the Khaleeji is plummeting right along with it, causing a significant degree of harm to the FAS's economy.
To help offset this harm (and to decouple the FAS's economy from a country that the FAS is starting to view as maybe not the most reliable economic partner), the Central Bank in Dubai has announced that the Khaleeji will switch its peg from the US Dollar to a basket of foreign currencies (the Euro, the Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen). The FAS hopes that this will help to salvage the Khaleeji's value, better protecting the economy from the collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Rumor has it that the Central Bank is discussing the idea of unpegging the Khaleeji entirely and allowing it to float freely, but so far, the Central Bank has made no moves towards floating the Khaleeji.
Crises suck. They shatter the status quo and throw established norms and procedures into chaos. No one really wins during a crisis.
But in another sense, they're a double-edged sword. The status quo is often a repressive entity, reinforcing existing hierarchies and preventing dramatic shifts in the order of things. Chaos breaks that apart, giving the ingenuitive and the entrepreneurial on opportunity to better their lot in ways they otherwise could not.
Put differently: chaos is a ladder, and the FAS intends to be the one climbing it. As the largest economy in the Arab World (and one of the world's 20 largest economies) by both nominal GDP and GDP per capita (by a significant margin--it's probably either Saudi Arabia or Egypt in second place in nominal GDP, and definitely Saudi Arabia in second place in GDP per capita, but the FAS more than doubles the country in second place in both categories, so it's sort of a moot point), the FAS hopes to cement its place as the regional economic power.
The FAS has announced a new slate of policies intended to attract rich investors, manufacturing firms, and financiers fleeing the new nationalization program of the United States. New free trade zones have been created throughout the country--especially in the struggling, undiversified regions of Kuwait and Qatar--with the goal of convincing fleeing American manufacturers to set up shop in these areas. Attractions include wildly low tax rates (as low as zero percent in some instances), a common law framework (as opposed to the Sharia-based legal system in most of the FAS), highly subsidized land prices (sometimes free), relaxed financial restrictions (making it easier to move money in and out of the FTZ), and, for large enough firms moving enough operations into the country, preferential visa treatment (making it easier for them to relocate foreign employees into the country). Sitting at one of the major crossroads of global trade, moving operations to the FAS offers easy access to both the world's established consumer markets (like the EU and East Asia) as well as to some of its largest growing markets (South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and MENA). Pair this with wildly high standards of living (for people who aren't slaves Asian or African migrant workers) and established expatriate communities, and the FAS becomes an incredibly attractive option for American and other foreign firms looking to relocate.
In addition to manufacturing-oriented FTZs, special attention has been paid to attracting service-oriented firms to new and existing FTZs in the vein of Dubai Internet City, Dubai Design District, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai Media City, with the goal of developing a robust service economy that can capture growing markets in the MENA, South Asia, and East African regions. In advertising these zones, the governments of the FAS have highlighted the success of previous ventures in Dubai, which have attracted the regional headquarters of giants like Facebook, Intel, LinkedIn, Google, Dell, Samsung, Microsoft, IBM, Tata Consultancy, and more.
Perhaps one of the most substantial pushes, though, is to attract American financial services and FinTech firms to base in the FAS (particularly Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the traditional centers of regional finance). New financial industry free trade zones have been set up in the four cities, structured in the vein of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). These financial FTZs boast an independent and internationally regulated regulatory and judicial system, a common law framework, and extremely low taxation rates. All government services in these regions are available in English (the lingua franca of international finance), and in events where ambiguity exists in the legal and regulatory systems, the systems are set to default to English Common Law (except for the Kuwait City International Financial Centre, which is hoping to better tailor itself towards American financial firms by defaulting to American Civil Law from pre-2020 rather than English Common Law). Much like in the DIFC, these new FTZs will also run their own courts, staffed in large part by top judicial talent from Common Law (or in the case of Kuwait City, American Civil Law) jurisdictions like Singapore, England, and (formerly) Hong Kong. Using these FTZ, the four cities hope to raise their profile as financial centers. Dubai in particular is hoping to break into the top ten global financial centers--and it stands a good chance of doing so, too, as it sits at number 12, just behind cities like LA, SF, and Shenzhen--while the other cities are just hoping to boost their profile into the 20s or 10s (according to Long Finance, Dubai is number 12 in the world and 1 in the region, Abu Dhabi is number 39 in the world and two in the region, Doha is number 48 in the world, and Kuwait City is number 91).
submitted by TheManIsNonStop to Geosim [link] [comments]

Best non-airmiles (cash back?) credit card in Singapore

I have always used an airmiles card for Singapore Airlines miles. I might not be flying in the near future so thought about applying for a second credit card, and I thought cashback is the best deal right now. Has anyone researched the best cashback credit cards?
I thought the only ones worth considering are:
- UOB One card - gives you fixed cashback of SGD300 if you spend at least SGD2,000/month for 3 consecutive months (or 5% cashback if you spend exactly SGD2,000/month as you get no cashback for the excess) and fixed cashback of SGD50 or SGD100 if you spend at least SGD500/month or SGD1,000/month, respectively for 3 consecutive months (or 3.3% cashback if you spend exactly the minimum) (but dealing with UOB is the most painful experience on the planet; this is a bank that will send you a SMS that they sent you a physical letter to ask you to send them an e-mail)
- American Express True Cashback - 3% on first SGD5,000 if you spend SGD5,000 within first 6 months; 1.5% otherwise with no minimum (great as a second card if you hit the cap of another card and regularly spend beyond the SGD2,800 spend limit for cashback of the UOB One; also gives you 2.5% cashback on non-SGD spend but you would save by using Transferwise or a similar challenger bank card to pay for lower forex rather than paying an inflated credit card forex rate and getting 1% back)
- HSBC Advance - SGD150 on first SGD800 if you spend SGD800 in first month; 1.5% up to SGD70/month otherwise (2.5% if you are HSBC Advance client); 2.5% for dining, utility and telco bills with SGD2,000/month minimum spend (could be useful as a second card like the Amex True Cashback)
- UOB YOLO - gives you 8% cashback (capped at SGD60/month or cash back on up to SGD750/month spend) on weekend dining, entertainment and Grab (3% on weekdays) with minimum SGD600/month spend (could be useful if you are ordering fancy weekend takeout a lot right now)
- OCBC 365 - gives you 6% cashback (capped at SGD80/month or cash back on up to SGD1,333/month spend) on dining and online food orders, and 3% cash back on grocery, telco and utilities, with minimum SGD800/month spend (could be useful if you are ordering a lot of takeout right now, but OCBC is also harder to deal with)
- DBS Live Fresh - gives 5% cashback capped at SGD60/month but requires minimum spend of SGD600/month; gives actual monthly cashback of up to SGD20 on SGD400 per category for "online", "eligible Visa Contactless", and all other spend (you get up to SGD40/month cashback on SGD800/month spent in two broad categories (online and Visa contactless) but a lot of hassle for up to 3 x SGD20/month and useful only if you spend so much (and still want to squeeze out this SGD60/month of cashback!) that you max the cap on the better cards; again, you might make a loss by forgetting about the card and having to pay late fees, annual renewal fee, etc)
- Maybank Friends and Family - 8% cashback (capped at SGD80/month or cash back on up to SGD1,000/month) on groceries (including online grocery), fastfood (including Deliveroo and Foodpanda), petrol, ride hailing, and telco, with minimum SGD800/month spend to receive 8% rate (useful if you spend closer to SGD1,000/month on groceries but that's not everyone)
Other options (that are nowhere as good as they first seem) would be:
- Citi SMRT - gives 3% cashback on "online" shopping and 5% on selected groceries, McDonalds and other fastfood, Starbucks and other coffee, movie; minimum spend of SGD300/month (plus 2% on ez-Link top up, if you want a couple of dollars more a month!) (looks like a huge hassle because you get "SMRT$" instead of real dollars up front; could be useful as a second card if you max out the caps of the better cards, carefully check if a merchant counts as "online", and if you buy your groceries at Fairprice, Giant or Sheng Shiong)
- Citi Cash Back - gives 8% cashback capped at SGD75/month for dining, grocery and petrol but requires minimum spend of SGD888/month; gives actual monthly cashback of up to SGD25 on SGD312.50 per category for dining, grocery and petrol (a lot of hassle for up to 3 x SGD25/month, you might make a loss by forgetting about the card and having to pay late fees, annual renewal fee, etc)
- POSB Everyday - could be useful if you shop at Sheng Siong and the other places covered by the card
- Bank of China family - gives you 10% cashback on dining of up to SGD25/month on SGD250/month and 3% on online shopping, with minimum SGD800/month spend (if you want to do the accounting acrobatics to keep track of the details...)
- QUESTION - Maybank Visa Infinite - featured in the Straits Times June 14, 2020 edition as being the only card that racks up rewards points for insurance premiums, but I cannot figure out the card based on the Maybank website. It emphasises air miles as its perks and says it has a SGD600 annual fee (waived for SGD60,000 annual spend).
Has anyone else applied for non-airmiles cards? Happy to hear people's thoughts.
UPDATE: I was wondering what the best spending plan is for someone who spends at least SGD2,000-3,000/month. Below that, you should focus on the minimum spend for one card and above that, you would put the excess in a card like the Amex, Standard Chartered or HSBC Advance with a no cap 1.5% cash back.
I was thinking:
DBS Live Fresh - Spend your first SGD800/month of online and Visa contactless on this card (two broad categories) for 5% cash back
UOB Yolo or OCBC 365 - Spend up to SGD 750 or SGD1,333/month on weekend dining or dining and other qualified spend here for 8% or 6% cash back
UOB One - Put your spend that does not go to a higher cash back card here and make sure you hit exactly SGD500, 1,000 or 2,000/month for SGD50, 100 or 300 cash back/quarter (again, you get no cash back for the excess)
American Express True Cash Back - Put your spend here after you hit the monthly target on the UOB One
UPDATE: I tried applying for the UOB One, took UOB two months to process my application, then they say after approval, they need two business days to process the release of the actual credit card then two business days to deliver. I tried HSBC, Amex and DBS and they processed and delivered the actual card on the third business day after application (not after approval but after submission of the application)
submitted by josemartinlopez to singapore [link] [comments]

Fueling The Us Economy's Middle Market Growth Engine

It has a major presence in New York and different world monetary facilities both out and in of Europe. And if you are the owner of a privately held firm and this data has peaked your interest or even led you to have more questions, then attending a Generational Equity M&A seminar can be a sensible next step. A few hours of your time will provide you with substantial ideas to pursue in order so that you can take advantage of our present seller’s market.

Job Openings Related To Middle Market Investment Bank

It is a mix of equity, mounted deposits, company bonds, liquid funds and authorities funds, among others. Based in your danger urge for food, you can determine how a lot of your cash may be invested in equities via NPS. Debt mutual fund schemes are suitable for traders who want regular returns. They are much less unstable and, therefore, thought of less risky compared to equity funds.
Some of the middle-market banks resemble regional boutiques in that they concentrate on providing services to a specific trade or sector. For instance, one of the extra acknowledged center-market investment banking companies is KBW, an investment bank that focuses on working with monetary services sector companies. Some of the more well-recognized middle-market corporations are Piper Sandler Companies, Cowen Group, and Houlihan Lokey. National full-service center market corporations – Expand their companies to mix funding banking, wealth management, equity analysis, and brokerage and personal fairness companies. Banks are financial institutions offering a breadth of products and services, together with managing deposits, lending, wealth management, forex trade, and funding banking.
Examples of properly-identified elite boutique funding banks are Lazard LLC, Evercore Group LLC, and Moelis & Company. The smallest of the investment banks, each when it comes to agency size and typical deal dimension, are the banks known as regional boutique banks.
This lack of a succession plan, coupled with impending retirement, creates an urgency for these companies to alter arms, and bodes well for traders and corporations to amass, consolidate and develop them. Most senior debt suppliers will wrestle to supply all of the money wanted to fund an acquisition.
It is comprised of corporations that are not giant enough to receive massive bank loans, yet it's too giant to receive small enterprise loans. Upstream movement from a microbusiness to being a center market entity necessitates that you just turn into a manager and learn to manage managers. Therefore, administration and hiring expertise are very important within the lower center market. put their give attention to the decrease center market section and improve proficiency in doing deals in the segment.
The most amount that may be invested in the scheme Rs 15 lakh. At maturity, the investment amount is repaid to the senior citizen. In the occasion of death of senior citizen, the money will be paid to the nominee. SCSS has a five-yr tenure, which could be additional prolonged by three years as soon as the scheme matures.
if you are able to leverage your skills to get an fairness stake someplace you need to be on the trail to more wealth. I'm just curious, but how does the efficient tax come out to 50%? Is it the AMTI that causes each marginal dollar to be so low or what?
On December 1, 2005, Stifel Financial closed on the acquisition of the Legg Mason Capital Markets business from Citigroup Inc. The LM Capital Markets business acquired included investment banking, fairness and glued earnings analysis, equity gross sales and buying and selling, and taxable fastened income gross sales and buying and selling . These assets gave the company substantial research and capital market capabilities and reworked the corporate from a regional agency to a national one. Each of the bulge bracket banks operates internationally and has a large world, in addition to home, presence. Most bulge bracket banks also have industrial and retail banking divisions and generate extra income by cross-promoting monetary merchandise.
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Credit Suisse came underneath fireplace from U.S. regulators for allowing its nicely-identified consumer confidentiality to help others avoid paying taxes. The firm has CHF 796 Billion in assets, equivalent to about $800 billion USD. The company has a serious U.S. presence, partially pushed by its merger with First Boston with a relationship going back to 1978. Eric Rosenberg lined small business and investing products for The Balance. Information Generational Group publishes on the World Wide Web may include references or cross references to other products, applications and providers that are not announced or out there in your nation.
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Most regular shoppers received’t want investment banking companies, but for rising companies and excessive-net-value individuals, an funding financial institution may supply distinctive financial services to meet your needs. An investment associate should deliver a spread of experience to the desk including a really strong observe report of execs who have successfully built center market corporations throughout a variety of industries. In an age the place capital has become a commodity, alignment round values quite than valuation alone is more and more essential to the profitable outcome of partaking non-public fairness. Investment banking compensation could not range all that much between working for one of many largest bulge bracket banks as in comparison with a smaller, elite boutique bank. While the bigger banks commonly handle bigger offers, those offers are few and much between smaller deals.

Stifel Employee Reviews

Bank Of China focuses primarily on industrial banking actions similar to deposits and withdrawals, and international exchange. The bank also is even licensed to issue banknotes in Hong Kong and Macau.
We specialize in delivering dependable, creative and compelling financing options to middle market corporations backed by personal equity sponsors. The firm’s credit experience also forms the inspiration of our Late Stage Lending enterprise and our Broadly Syndicated Loan funding program.

Are Investment Bankers Rich

I’m presently 21yrs old & finally transferred into a high 5 undergraduate enterprise program right here in Toronto, previously was learning biology for the mistaken causes. I tend to main in Accounting & Finance + Minors in Computer Science and Applied Statistics + Will be going by way of a rigorous coding bootcamp program. Yes, you might get extra consumer publicity and responsibilities in some teams, but you can additionally get stuck working on a lot of boring, normal sell-facet auctions and personal placements.
Like other funding banks, the advisory companies of Bank of America Merrill Lynch are necessary for corporations looking to increase funds in public markets. When going public, funding bankers help decide the preliminary share value while balancing liquidity and demand.
However, a excessive-return, low-risk mixture in a investment product, unfortunately, does not exist. Most buyers need to make investments in such a method that they get sky-high returns as shortly as potential with out the risk of dropping principal cash.

Middle Market Investment Bank Salaries In The United States

On the downside, there was an especially negative individual within the division who received together with no one. Pay was also mergers and acquisitions advisory very low, with only small cost of residing changes annually. While bonuses increased with longevity, you couldn't construct your salary.
In a mezzanine loan, there might be collateral within the type of a pledge inventory. Step by step instruction on how the professionals on Wall Street worth an organization. certification program, designed to remodel anyone into a world-class financial analyst.
In an actively traded fund, the returns are largely depending on a fund manager's capacity to generate returns. Index funds and trade-traded fund are passively managed, and these observe the underlying index. Equity schemes are categorised based on market-capitalisation or the sectors during which they make investments.
The Central Bank with impact from July 1, 2020 has launched Floating Rate Savings Bond, 2020 . The biggest distinction between earlier 7.seventy five% financial savings bonds and the newly launched floating fee bond is that the interest rate on the newly launched financial savings bond is topic to reset in every six months.
While they typically have locations spanning a single nation, center market banks are rarely found internationally. Full-service funding banks supply a variety of business and funding providers.
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submitted by dariasss to u/dariasss [link] [comments]

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Money, Money, Money - Its always about the money!


Some economists (but not all economists) believe that the USD and the US economy is losing its integrity and may ultimately collapse.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-14/dollar-crash-how-will-it-unfold
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091416/what-would-it-take-us-dollar-collapse.asp
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html
https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6-1029312845?op=1
https://medium.com/@baileybarney/will-the-us-dollar-collapse-23e707f19da0

Question: If accurate, what would replace the USD as the global reserve currency?
Answer: The IMF is ready with a replacement global reserve currency called SDR's!

  1. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/future-of-the-IMF-special-drawing-right-SDR-Ocampo.htm
" In this brave new world, is it time to rethink the SDR’s role?" (Ocampo)"The IMF should not pass up this opportunity" (Ocampo)
  1. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-special-drawing-right-global-currency-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2019-04?barrier=accesspaylog
3.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/ap24/imf-populism-nationalism-sdr-reserve-currency
4.https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR
5.https://www.theigc.org/project/the-viability-of-the-special-drawing-rights-as-an-international-reserve-asset/
6.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/news/india/consensus-remains-elusive-among-g20-countries-on-fresh-sdr-allocation/amp-11595160202040.html
7.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/43a67e06-bbeb-4bea-8939-bc29ca785b0e
8.https://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/business/27imf.html
9.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1998/09/24/one-world-one-money
10.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/world-reserve-currencies-is-the-us-dollars-days-numbered/amp/
11.https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/22/the-dollar-shouldnt-be-the-reserve-currency-but-neither-should-the-renminbi/

Will CBDC's be created at the same time as the SDR's? Will exchange rates of CBDC's be anchored to Quotas? Is the IMF a fund or potentially more like a Central Bank for the World? How did the IMF come about?
Central Bank Digital Coins - CBDC's
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2018/11/13/Casting-Light-on-Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies-46233

2.https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/05/13/sp051419-stablecoins-central-bank-digital-currencies-and-cross-border-payments
https://www.google.com/amp/s/techwireasia.com/amp/2020/03/central-banks-are-keen-on-digital-currencies-the-imf-is-backing-them/
3.
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/central-banks-wake-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-with-wef/articleshow/73554517.cms
4.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pawelkuskowski/2020/06/07/central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-a-crisis-recovery-tool-for-governments/5.
https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/01/central-banks-waking-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-for-cbdc-deployment-with-world-economic-forum-177ca5d9ee/6.
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/41243/imf-officials-say-synthetic-cbdc-with-a-public-private-partnership-is-the-better-option7.
https://blockchain.news/insight/private-firms-can-boost-innovation-of-central-bank-digital-currencysays-imf-8.
https://coinidol.com/official-promote-digital-currency/9.
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/top-imf-official-calls-for-synthetic-central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-development/10
  1. England:https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-13/bank-of-england-debating-digital-currency-creation-bailey-says
  2. USA:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/03/23/new-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-introduces-digital-dollar-and-digital-dollar-wallets/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-digital-dollars-are-part-of-debate-over-coronavirus-stimulus-11585085518
  1. Australiahttps://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rba-has-been-secretly-working-on-an-all-digital-version-of-the-australian-dollar-but-it-may-not-release-it-to-the-public-at-all-2020-1
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/payments-system/financial-and-regulatory-technology/
  1. Canadahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/canada-exploring-consumer-cbdc/
  2. Swedenhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/sweden-is-testing-its-new-central-bank-digital-currency/amp
  3. Norwayhttps://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/News-items/2019/2019-06-27-cbdc/
  4. European Unionhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/dutch-central-bank-wants-european-191627776.html
  5. Singaporehttps://chainbulletin.com/singapore-ready-to-explore-cbdc-together-with-china/amp/
  6. New Zealand:https://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/digital-central-bank-money-tipped-for-world-dominance/
  7. Chinahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/china-central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc-renminbi-dolla

SideNote:

The World Economic Forum is planning a major event for January of 2021 that will focus on the "Great Reset" and the "4th Industrial Revolution".
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Prince Charles wants to reset - Do you?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/03/pandemic-is-chance-to-reset-global-economy-says-prince-charles

What are they gonna reset?

TL:DR
!. Potential collapse of the US dollar.
  1. Replaced by IMF SDR's
3.Complimented by new CBDC's
  1. How is this connection the WEF "Great Reset..
Its time to read, learn and share!

Edit = Added TL:DR
submitted by andrew77mc to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is drifting

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is drifting

Fundamental US dollar forecast for today

Investors are staying aside ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech and the publications of the US important domestic data

People see what they want to see. The euro fans are so enthusiastic that they prefer to ignore the flaws of the single European currency. Is the US-China trade resumed? It is not a problem! In 2018-2019, the EUUSD pair was falling amid the trade conflict escalation. In 2020, however, it will be rising in this case because of the diversification of the PBOC FX reserves in favor of the euro. Are there talks about the expansion of European QE? It is not a problem! The ECB just can’t ease its monetary policy as much as the Fed. Is there the second pandemic wave in Europe? It doesn’t matter; the illness is asymptomatic; there won’t be another lockdown.
Optimism grows stronger. However, people with accompanying pathologies most often die from COVID-19. If we transfer this metaphor to the global economic sense, the accompanying pathology of the export-led euro-area economy is a downturn of the international trade. The process started because of trade wars, and the pandemic intensified it. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, flows of goods across borders were 12.5% lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of the year. It is the worst drop since records started in 2000. In the three months through June, the US exports contracted by 24.8%, the euro-area exports were 19.2% down. However, the US exports account for 20% of the country’s GDP; in the Eurozone, they exceed 40%. The euro-area exporters will have a difficult time, taking into account the euro’s rapid growth.
With this regard, the USA is in a better position, which allows the White House to repeat its mantra about the V-shaped economic recovery. People see what they want to see. Larry Kudlow, the chief economic advisor to Trump, ignores the problems of the US labor market and the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2014. He stresses the best new home sales over the past 14 years, industrial recovery, and the S&P500 record highs.

Dynamics of US consumer confidence



Source: Bloomberg

Dynamics of new home sales in USA



Source: Bloomberg
Unlike the White House, the Federal Reserve is more cautious. Jerome Powell has many times stressed the slow GDP recovery, the necessity to take control over OCVID-19, and fresh fiscal stimulus. The Republicans and Democrats can’t reach an agreement for a new financial aid package, and the Fed has to take the responsibility. So, investors anticipate Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to get something meaningful.
According to MUFG Bank, Powell will focus on holding low interest rates, thereby weakening the greenback. Investors expect the Fed Chair to express the Fed’s willingness to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot” and reinforce its commitment to full employment. If so, there will be other evidence that the Fed is running out of monetary tools. If the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits falls while durable goods orders rise, the EUUSD bears can go ahead and try to break out the support levels of 1.178 and 1.1755. Otherwise, weak data and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the dollar can resume the greenback’s downtrend.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-drifting/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

MT5 international foreign exchange trading platform, recently the foreign exchange gold market is also on the rise

What is the foreign exchange market?Foreign exchange market (FOREx market) refers to the place or network where foreign exchange transactions take place.Mainly between local currency and foreign currency, foreign exchange transactions between different currencies.The foreign exchange market can be divided into two parts, namely the inter-bank foreign exchange market and the retail foreign exchange market.Interbank foreign exchange market can also be acquired as an inter-bank wholesale foreign exchange market, which is the uppermost market in foreign exchange transactions and the market for foreign exchange transactions among Banks, forming a relatively centralized foreign exchange market.In the interbank market, there is no such thing as margin trading.Retail forex market refers to the market between forex trading institutions and their clients. The most basic class in this market is individual traders, characterized by wide and dispersed distribution.
The modern international foreign exchange market is generally distributed in major cities in the world, such as London, New York, Paris, Vertical, Zurich, Wellington, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong and other world-famous financial centers and foreign exchange centers. The interconnections and influence of these centers form a foreign exchange network covering the whole world.Due to time zones and time differences, such a horizontal global market is almost always open and close one after another, forming a circular 24-hour foreign exchange market.In the global market, the UK, the US, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan accounted for 77% of the global forex trading volume.At present, China's foreign exchange market is a market system centered on the inter-bank market.
In the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate fluctuation refers to the exchange rate of changing currencies. The change in exchange rate is the decrease in the value of one currency and the increase in the value of another currency.A currency does not become a waste of paper, or even a dwindling currency, but it will always represent a certain value, unless the abolition of the currency is declared.You've had negative interest rates, you've had a plunge in stocks, you've had zero futures, you've had real estate, you've had a question mark as an investment hedge, and in many cases rents may not be worth the mortgage index.For domestic investors, the currency market is the most "clean" speculative market with little risk but great opportunity.
Investors need not bother in the performance of each stock, futures long-short don't have to worry about both sides of the insider trading, daily turnover of huge, make any also does not have the dealer's courage, soros, buffett can learn about the information, as well as ordinary investors can learn, global investors and speculators are in the same time looking at the same price and graphics, several thousands of marketmakers network trading platform and the world millions of investors and speculators have together.
submitted by kelly19981001 to investing [link] [comments]

King Bond Market Long $TLT, Bear Oil Fossil Fools and thus almost every sector ETF, selling a put of 5G companies

From the $BLK DD guy that rolled into $XLF last month. I am currently long $SLV, $GLD, $GDX, and $GDXJ with call spreads, shares, and just pruned $AMZN and $AAPL gains but keeping $ARKF, $ARKQ, and $ARKK (ETFs with $TSLA as the largest holding.)
Today, Friday's CNBC "Options Action" has just dangled calls on the $TLT, the ETF that tracks the 20+ year *BOND PRICES move inverse to yields and the Fed would not mind rates to hit 0% to spark inflation.* I concur with CNBC who suggested buying August dated call spreads on $TLT.
My $XLE long dated puts have been melting up. I am short every sector ETF but $IBB and $XLV. Be careful as these options are not as liquid as the $QQQ or $SPY but I cannot help that sectors are moving down when oil is down.
The VIX is holding steady, steady high. I am not hedging with the $VIX when stay home stonks work- the $VIX is broken imao so use $GLD, $SLV, and $TLT because bond rates are going to 0% (meaning the price goes up.)
I also concur with CNBC that options are the best way to play a market by reducing risk like selling a put. There are risky options, and very safe options if you can own 100 shares (the company could be $DTEGY Deutsche Telekom AKA T-Mobile/Sprint and the bringer of 5G eventually, pick your poison.)
I suggest selling a put for some good companies with solid balance sheets, 5G capabilities, and anything auto in the green space to get 100 shares of companies (see the next paragraph.)
My suggestions for getting 100 shares at a cheaper price would be Ericsson (trading under $10,) Dell or VMWare (you pick the one that matches your risk,) NIO (trading below $10), $NOK at $4 is interesting, and for big rollers Amazon (if you have the $ to own 100 shares at $2,500 or $250,000 or less, I would but that is for wsb) That is, if Amazon retests $2,500. I suggest 100 shares of $SHLL for YOLO if this bores you as this is the best $SPAC (but there is probably other ones because management is all you have with blank check companies.)
AFTER you own 100 shares of $AAL or $TSM or Dell or whatever, you can dump the 100 shares anytime. I suggest you keep them and sell options and join the theta gang. Why not get paid for owning your 100 shares of $TSM [Taiwan Semiconductor, the company onshoring manufacturing to America] you got at $45? $TSM August 21 $45p is $.35. If you had 100 shares of $TSM today, selling a $60c gives you $140 just for holding the shares until August 21st.
Bullish on onshoring green jobs because Trump leaving office is the biggest buy after the news ever. (Buy on the rumor sell on the news but in reverse because solar employs more than fossil fools in TX pre COVIDcession.)
For examples of selling a put: $AAL Nov 20th $2 puts are $0.14 (You are agreeing to buy 100 shares of $AAL at $2/share before or on November 20th, if you are not asked to buy $AAL you keep your $0.14 collateral and the full $14 credit.)
A shorter dated long put $AAL Aug 21st put is $0.09 ($9.) Or you could buy the death puts on $AAL but JPow exists, hence zombie companies, like Hertz, so that is just blowing money. $AAL has the highest %age interest on their debt and the CLOs (their bond insurance) were the highest, I have to check again ($AAL is the worst, but not as bad as $HTZ, a worthless zombie stock.)
*BOND prices move inverse to yields so going from 0.5% to 0% makes the price go up* Zombie companies with balance sheet nightmares is what keeps bond prices upper bound at 0.8 but lower bound is 0%.
Worthless zombie stocks include banks, fossil fools, and then by default industrials, and I hate to say that I am only long $XLK and thinking of $IBB. Every day that oil is not above $35 or in the green or both is a day stonks tank. Every stonk will fall after earnings. Short individual stonks going into earnings, wait- all stonks have cancelled earnings. See why I think maximum protection by not going long the VIX but long gold, silver, even transition phase metals, copper, and BONDS.
$NEM, $GLDI, $SLVP, $HL, $SAND, $SA, $GLTR, $PALL, $SPPP, $SSRM, $BTG , $PPLT, $PLTM, $NUGT, $BAR, $FNV all up today [I also have $GLNCY, $SBSW, and $PLG.] Why own these when you can just long $GDX and $GDXJ?
I do think rates will remain positive, until they are not positive anymore, AKA Japan and Europe :). What BOND fund would you long or short and why, besides $TLT? If a 100 year bond comes out, the interest rate will be 0% anyways in the long run, but we are dead in the long run, so long live bonds until we decarbonize the economy, tax the rich, and pigs fly (not happening fast enough.) Ray Dalio and many others have been harping about this, and a broken clock is right twice a day, or a bear is right when we are in a bear market with a broken VIX.
The bond market is king compared to the stonk market in sheer $. And ForEx trades trillions a day and is important (on days the $DXY, the basket of the dollar versus the globe) goes up $GLD should ease and is a time to buy the dip, and on days the $DXY goes down $GLD will gap up during this "bear oil/hospitality/planes" market.) When the $DXY goes down, it takes more dollars to buy the gold/silvecoppematerials, and $GLD rises and is very liquid for options. Thinking August to add to my Dec 31st $160c. That is, unless we are going to allow millions to go into poverty, so then just buy guns and physical gold and we can trade scraps of silver.
Fossil fools, the slow pace of massive renewable energy projects, and both candidates tripping overthemselves to be more anti-China during global warming and upcoming food inflation spell the need risk reduction (if you plan on holding equities please buy puts to hedge.)
TL;DR $TLT August call spreads, $TLT is the 20 year bond ETF. Pick companies you want to own 100 shares of by selling a put while long $GLD and long $SLV print money so holding the 100 shares prints money joining theta gang.
submitted by daviddjg0033 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

ADVICE FOR THE WISE - AUGUST 2020

FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors, “Behind every dark cloud there is an every-shining sun. Just wait. In time, the cloud will pass.” Marianne Williamson. All inclusive, economies are seeing recuperation with pointers, for example, PMI showing an improvement in spite of infection resurgence in a couple of nations. U.S., Euro, and China manufacturing activities have picked up pace, with July numbers in these three regions crossing 50 mark, indicating expansion. Financial and monetary policies remain exceptionally accommodative, and liquidity remains buoyant, which should provide continued support for further economic recovery. Equity market declines provide opportunities to buy better stocks at lower valuations. We foresee this slowdown and the year 2020 from an investment opportunity viewpoint rather than worrying, as the risk-reward ratio in the current scenario is in favour of equity investments. The current positive outlook on the global markets is well backed by negative real rates, expansion of the central bank balance sheet along with growth recovery and medical progress on COVID-19 While there is a growing increase in the number of COVID cases on the domestic front, there has been an improvement in the recovery rate; in India it is about 68.41 percent while 64.05 percent globally. Early signs of pent-up demand are visible in the economy as indicated by high frequency indicators. Expected normal monsoon and higher sowing of Kharif crops YoY gives us the solace that the rural economy will play a major part in the future economic growth. Other macro factors such as low oil prices and stable currency, high forex reserves and current-account surplus will act as tailwinds for the domestic equity market. Expectations of the Q1 FY21 earnings to bottom out by FY21, while the economy and earnings are expected to normalize by FY23 keeping in mind the current low interest rate scenario and high liquidity, supports valuations. With the declining dollar index and humongous global liquidity we expect the money to flow into EMs. In July, the domestic equity market kept witnessing strong FII inflows coupled with steady SIP flows in mutual funds.
Know more - http://www.karvywealth.com/data/sites/1/skins/karvywealth/Download_media_report.aspx?FileName=35269F8C-8C0A-4624-9FED-793AD0998167|5252655
^ �]H"
submitted by wealthadvisor22 to u/wealthadvisor22 [link] [comments]

Dollar drifts higher as coronavirus, China data sap confidence

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
SINGAPORE - The dollar steadied on Friday as a jump in U.S. bond yields and a drag on sentiment from lacklustre Chinese economic data put the brakes on a selldown of the world's reserve currency.
The mood had the dollar within reach of snapping a seven-week losing streak against the risk-sensitive Aussie AUD=D3, which has settled around $0.7149 and is flat for the week.
The yen JPY= is on course for its weakest week against the dollar in two months and is down about 0.9% at 106.84 from last Friday's close.
The biggest loser has been the kiwi NZD=D3, which was pressured at $0.6538, as the country faces a fresh coronavirus outbreak and after the central bank this week flagged increased bond buying and again mentioned the prospect of negative rates.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar remains 0.2% lower for the week, but it has appeared to arrest a slide that has it about 9.5% below its March peak.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sparked a bond rally this week by promising to extend its own purchases and, next week, speed them up as well.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: week#1 dollar#2 new#3 Friday#4 U.S.#5
Post found in /Coronavirus, /Economics, /Coronavirus and /CoronavirusRecession.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".

Fellow idiots,
I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too.
Point 2: The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them.
Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10.
Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth..
Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point.
Point 6: Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment.
Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too.
Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point.
Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now?
Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment.
Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid.
TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing.
Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
*not investment advice*
submitted by ComicalEconomical to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Forex Market Wrap - YouTube China Foreign Exchange Market Turns for Better: Official Forex Fundamentals - Central Banks and Interest L6/P7: Chinese Forex Reserve, Undervalued Yuan & Merchantile Policy: How? Foreign Currency Exchange Rates  Dollar Exchange Rate  IBaharani Dinar  USD to Inr  USD to Pkr Exchange Rates Of The Chinese Renminbi, Yuan 15.02.2018 ...  Currencies and banking topics #21

Forex Loan Rate China's management system of interest rates on foreign-currency deposits and loans had an important reform from September 21, 2000 according to the notice issued by the People's Bank of China at the approval of the State Council. China's central bank announced on Saturday that it will scrap the reserve requirement for forward forex trading starting Monday. The foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward forex trading will be reduced from 20 percent to zero, the People's Bank of China said in an online statement. The move was made as the country's foreign exchange market operation has remained stable with balanced ... According to the bank's governing board, further monetary easing would help to reduce risks as it would strengthen the economy and private sector balance sheets. The People´s Bank of China announced its decision to leave the one-year cash rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive month at 3.85 ... The People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is expected at 6.6698. Mon 26 Oct 2020 00:25:06 GMT. Author: Eamonn Sheridan Category: Central Banks. share. The mid-rate will be set at 0115GMT ... Bank of China Foreign Exchange Rates. There are Bank of China foreign exchange rates in the table below. The last update: 11.11.2020 (other countries) Currency Name Buying Rate Cash Buying Rate Selling Rate Cash Selling Rate Middle Rate Pub Time; AED: 173.91: 186.83: 179.34: 2020.11.10 22:08:26 : AUD: 479.56: 464.66 Currency Name Buying Rate Cash Buying Rate Selling Rate Cash Selling Rate Middle Rate Pub Time; AED: 173.55: 186.44: 179.34: 2020.11.10 13:03:28 : AUD: 479.47: 464.57

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Forex Market Wrap - YouTube

These central banks raise interest rates to try and fight inflation, and lower interest rates to stimulate growth. Their actions often create movements in the exchange rates that are used in many ... ,dollar rate today,aed to pkr,gbp to pkr,dirham to pkr,euro rate,us dollar to pkr,forex rate,euro rate today,today currency rate,forex rates today,dollar price,exchange rate,btc to pkr,dirham rate ... Information Source: "Bank Of China" United States Dollar (USD) to Renminbi (RMB) … United Arab Emirates Dirham (AED) to Renminbi (RMB)… Brazilian Real (BRL) to Renminbi (RMB)… The RBNZ acts on rates, China's trade surplus shrinks, Mario Draghi to speak by Pepperstone AU. 6:00. US-China trade talks left in limbo, The RBA sits on its hands, USD slips vs majors and havens ... 2. How does China keep its yuan undervalued? 3. How did China buildup large forex reserve nearly $ 4 trillion? 4. What are the advantages and challenges in maintaining a large forex reserve? 5 ... China's foreign exchange market has in general turned for the better since the beginning of this year, with normal fluctuations, said the head of Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange ... DailyFX Senior Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio, CFA discusses the major data due over the coming week and how they will impact FX markets. - With the next stage of the US-China trade war ...

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